By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda threatens to devastate the African economy. The United Nations warns that the crisis could cost the continent as much as $3.6 billion (approximately 40.7 billion Ghana Cedis). The potential for a profound development emergency is rising as the virus continues to spread.
Economic and social consequences
The United Nations Development Programme has modeled three distinct scenarios for the outbreak. In the best-case scenario, the epidemic remains contained within the two currently affected nations. Even in this limited scope, the Democratic Republic of Congo would lose more than $1 billion (approximately 11.3 billion Ghana Cedis) in gross domestic product and 55,000 jobs.
The outlook worsens significantly if the virus migrates into neighboring countries like Rwanda and Angola. This worst-case scenario could be compounded by rising fuel costs linked to the Iran crisis. Such a situation would reduce continental GDP by $3.6 billion (approximately 40.7 billion Ghana Cedis) and eliminate 328,000 jobs. Beyond these figures, the report predicts that 985,000 more people could fall into poverty, with women suffering the most severe impact. Disruption to healthcare services may also lead to 2,520 additional infant deaths unrelated to the virus itself.
Ahunna Eziakonwa, UN assistant secretary-general and UNDP regional director for Africa, emphasized the scope of the threat. “Ebola does not stop at the hospital gate,” she stated. “It affects livelihoods, education, food, security, trade, public finances, and trust. If we treat the Ebola outbreak solely as a health challenge, we risk missing the much larger development emergency unfolding around it.”
The spread of the virus
The outbreak, identified as the Bundibugyo strain, has no currently tested vaccine or treatment. Since the official declaration on May 15, the Democratic Republic of Congo has reported 1,333 infections and 399 deaths. Uganda has confirmed 20 cases and two deaths. Authorities warn that the virus could easily move into other neighbors like South Sudan.
Recent reports from the National Institute of Biomedical Research indicate the virus has reached a fourth province, Haut-Uele. A patient traveled from the Ituri province, the current epicenter, to Haut-Uele. High levels of regional travel increase the risk of the virus flourishing further.
Damien Mama, the UNDP resident representative in Congo, stressed the urgency of intervention. “If we have the resources and we step up, we can contain this outbreak and prevent further losses,” he said. He added, “If we do not, this health emergency risks becoming a much deeper and prolonged development crisis across the region and potentially the continent.” Travel restrictions and mandated quarantines, while necessary for containment, are already hindering economic activity by limiting employment and local spending.
Urgent calls for medical funding
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention is seeking $18 million (approximately 203.6 million Ghana Cedis) to facilitate new treatment trials and strengthen contact tracing. Experts are currently investigating several therapies, including Gilead Science’s oral obeldesivir, to determine if they can prevent infections in individuals exposed to the virus. Researchers are also testing remdesivir and MBP134 from Mapp Biopharmaceuticals to see if they can improve survival rates for those already infected.
Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa CDC, underscored the necessity of rapid financial support. “We have the science. We now need the funding to use it,” he stated. “Clinical trials must start this week, and every day of delay costs lives we could save.” While projects to create and manufacture vaccines specific to the Bundibugyo strain are underway, the need for immediate funding to deploy existing research remains critical.
Expanding clinical trials amid rising caseloads
As of July 1, health agencies have reported an uptick in total confirmed cases to 1,333. To address the strain, the Africa CDC is launching clinical trials this week in Bunia, the capital of the Ituri province. While vaccine trial funding is largely secure, a significant gap remains for therapeutic research. The agency is calling for $16 million (approximately 181 million Ghana Cedis) to support post-exposure prophylaxis studies and an additional $2 million to $3 million (approximately 22.6 million to 33.9 million Ghana Cedis) for enhanced contact tracing.
The global stakeholders now face a pivotal decision regarding their financial commitment to this regional emergency. Whether the outbreak is successfully localized or cascades into a broader continental crisis will likely depend on the speed of the global response and the sustained integration of public health initiatives with economic support for the most vulnerable populations.
