By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz today, marking Day 24 of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. A 48-hour deadline set by President Donald Trump ticks toward its Monday evening expiration.
The President’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the vital trade passage remains closed has pushed regional tensions to a breaking point. As the 7:44 p.m. ET (11:44 p.m. GMT) deadline approaches, the global economy is already feeling the tremors of a potential total blockade.
Asian stocks plummeted on Monday morning with Japan’s Nikkei 225 sliding 3.5% and South Korea’s Kospi plunging 4.9%. These economies remain heavily reliant on energy imports that traditionally flow through the now-stalled waterway.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed to $114.09 (approximately GH₵1,245.86) a barrel. In a sharp revision on Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to an average of $110 (GH₵1,201.20) for March and April. Analysts warn that if Hormuz flows remain at 5% for ten weeks, prices will likely shatter the 2008 record of $147 (GH₵1,605.24) per barrel.
Iran Threatens Indefinite Blockade and Regional Sabotage
Tehran has responded to the American ultimatum with a series of severe counter-threats. The Iranian Defense Council warned Monday that it would deploy naval mines across the entire Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are targeted. “The entire Persian Gulf will effectively be blocked, and the responsibility for this will lie with the threatener,” the council stated via state media.
Tehran officials clarified on Sunday that safe passage will only be granted to vessels not linked to “Iran’s enemies.” International media reports indicate the Iranian government is moving forward with a plan to “monetize” its control over the strait, reportedly seeking payments of $2 million (approximately GH₵21.84 million) per tanker for passage. In the Iranian capital, authorities have limited fuel to 20 liters per car to manage immediate shortages.
Revolutionary Guard Vows Symmetrical Infrastructure Attacks
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement through the Fars news agency warning of “in-kind” retaliation against energy grids across the Middle East. “If you strike electricity, we will strike electricity,” the IRGC declared. The group maintained that Israeli and regional infrastructure hosting U.S. bases would be legitimate targets for sabotage.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf echoed this sentiment, asserting that regional infrastructure, including water desalination plants, could be “irreversibly destroyed.” This defensive-to-offensive shift in military doctrine has prompted the U.S. Department of State to issue a worldwide caution, urging Americans abroad to exercise increased caution due to the high potential for “spill-over effects.”
Energy Crisis Surpasses Historical Oil Shocks
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Monday that the current situation is “very severe” and worse than the 1970s oil shocks and the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis combined. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that the global economy is “facing a major, major threat” as vital arteries for petrochemicals and fertilizers are interrupted. Birol confirmed he is consulting with European and Asian governments to release more stockpiled oil beyond the record 400 million barrels already agreed upon.
The crisis is already hitting U.S. consumers, with average gas prices hitting $3.94 (GH₵43.02) per gallon on Sunday. U.S. natural gas prices also rose 1.5% to $3.141 (GH₵34.30) per million British thermal units. Despite this, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC that Americans would likely accept “temporary elevated prices” in exchange for long-term Middle East peace.
Market Divergence and the Transatlantic Gap
A historic divide has emerged in global energy markets as the spread between Brent and U.S. WTI crude exceeded $14 (GH₵152.88) a barrel on Monday. This gap reflects the relative insulation of the U.S. economy compared to the rest of the world. While
Brent is highly sensitive to the seaborne blockade, U.S. WTI remains shielded by record domestic production and landlocked storage hubs in Oklahoma. Analysts suggest the U.S. remains the most cushioned region globally, while Europe and Asia bear the brunt of the immediate supply risk.
Ghana and Africa Braced for Inflationary Aftershocks
The escalating Gulf crisis has triggered immediate concern across Africa, particularly for net fuel importers like Ghana. While Ghana produces roughly 120,000 barrels of crude daily, its reliance on imported refined petroleum leaves the domestic economy vulnerable to the $114.09 (GH₵1,245.86) per barrel price surge. Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Ghanaian consumers could face a “double whammy” of rising transport fares and soaring food prices.
Governments across the continent are already seeking alternatives, with Ghana and Kenya reportedly engaging Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery to secure long-term fuel supplies. The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has indicated it is implementing measures to support countries hit by these rising energy costs.
Humanitarian Toll Mounts Across Iran and Lebanon
The human cost of the 24-day conflict has reached staggering levels, with the reported death toll in Iran and Lebanon now numbering in the thousands. Iran’s Red Crescent Society reports that more than 80,000 civilian units—including schools and hospitals—have been damaged. In the city of Khorramabad, an airstrike on a residential area killed several people, including a child.
On the southern front, the Lebanese President condemned Israeli strikes as a “clear violation” of international law and a “prelude to a ground invasion.” This follows statements from the Israeli defense minister regarding the accelerated demolition of homes along the border. Meanwhile, anti-war protests erupted in several major cities over the weekend.
Escalation in the West Bank and Southern Israel
Violence has surged in the West Bank, where five Israeli settlers were arrested following a second night of attacks on Palestinians. The Palestine Red Crescent Society reported at least 10 injuries as cars and buildings were set ablaze. Simultaneously, southern Israel has faced heavy barrages. A missile strike on the city of Arad injured 84 people, though the Israeli military maintains a 92% interception rate for ballistic missiles.
In Tel Aviv, residents expressed a mix of resilience and anxiety. The military is also investigating a “friendly fire” incident in Misgav Am that killed a civilian, highlighting the chaotic nature of the current regional security environment.
Diplomatic Maneuvering and Defensive Coordination
Amid the looming deadline, U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a late-night call to discuss the crisis. Downing Street confirmed both leaders agreed that “reopening the Strait of Hormuz was essential to ensure stability.”
In the Gulf, defense systems remain on high alert. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE reported intercepting various drones and missiles early Monday morning. In Abu Dhabi, an Indian national was injured by debris following the interception of a ballistic missile.
As the countdown to the Monday evening deadline reaches its final hours, the international community faces a volatile convergence of military brinkmanship and economic fragility. Whether through diplomatic concessions or allied intervention, the resolution of the Hormuz blockade will likely redefine regional security frameworks and global energy markets for the coming decade.
