The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, stated that he was certain the National Democratic Congress (NDC) would win the Akwatia by-election, citing voter data as the basis for his prediction.
Speaking on Joy News, Mr Dankwah explained: “Once you work with data and you understand the dynamics, you tend to know exactly what’s going to happen. I’ve been to Akwatia twice in the last four weeks, and what I always look out for is the proportion of voters switching their vote from the former NDC candidate to the new candidate.”
He noted that Global InfoAnalytics’ polls showed a shift in voter behaviour, with 24% of those who previously voted for the independent candidate in the last election indicating support for the NDC’s Ernest Kumi Baidoo. That number later dropped to 16%, a change Mr Dankwah described as decisive.
“That was too significant, because it simply means that of the 2,000 votes, 16% was already gone. People had moved from the independent candidate to the NDC candidate, and that was something that if it stayed, I knew NDC was going to win the seat,” he added.
Mr Dankwah also pointed to defections from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, which further boosted the NDC’s chances.
Ahead of the polls, he predicted on Facebook: “53% for Baidoo is the floor and 47% for Asumadu is the ceiling. If you don’t get it, ask Al.”
The by-election was called following the death of the area’s MP, Ernest Kumi of the NPP, in July.
The Akwatia by-election is a race between NDC’s Bernard Bediako Baidoo, NPP’s Solomon Kwame Asumadu.
Voting has ended, the Electoral Commission is yet to announce the final outcome of the election.
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