By: Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
Reporting highlights:
- The impact of the 5.4% inflation rate on domestic market stability.
- The Bank of Ghana’s strategic exit from small-scale gold trading as of January 1, 2026.
- A look at the “Mahama Reset” political framing versus international investor sentiment.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has signaled a notable shift in Ghana’s economic narrative. Dr. Adrian Alter, the IMF Resident Representative, recently highlighted that “the 2025 macroeconomic outcomes have been better than expected.” Following the completion of the fifth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in December 2025, the Fund pointed to a rare alignment of positive indicators. Specifically, inflation collapsed from over 23% to a remarkable 6.3% by November 2025, while real GDP growth surged to an estimated 6.1% in the first three quarters—the fastest expansion since 2019. This performance has stabilized the cedi and pushed gross international reserves to a record $11.4 billion (approx. GH₵123.7 billion).
A Satisfactory Review Amid Lingering Risks
The IMF Executive Board categorized Ghana’s overall performance as “generally satisfactory” during its December 17 meeting. This approval unlocked a disbursement bringing total support to approximately $2.8 billion (approx. GH₵30.4 billion). The Fund credits this success to “strong corrective actions in the aftermath of the 2024 fiscal slippages.” Despite this optimism, the IMF maintains a stance of cautious oversight. Dr. Alter emphasized that the real test lies in the future, stating, “we hope that these efforts, these hard-won gains, will not be rolled back once the IMF program ends.”
The $214 Million Controversy: Trading vs. Fiscal Books
A central point of friction remains the accounting of the gold purchase programme. IMF Director of Communications Julie Kozack confirmed a “loss of approximately US$214 million (approx. GH₵2.32 billion)” under the government’s gold purchase programme in 2025. According to the Fund, this “loss stemmed from trading activities, fees, and exchange rate movements.” While the IMF acknowledges the programme helped build reserves, it advocates for these costs to be formally recognized. Ms. Kozack suggested that “losses be formally included on the government’s balance sheet rather than remaining on the books of the Bank of Ghana.” Recent clarifications from Dr. Alter on January 15, 2026, have since emphasized that this figure is a “quasi-fiscal cost” intended for transparency rather than an accusation of mismanagement.
International Outlook: The World Bank’s Upward Gaze
The World Bank has reinforced this optimistic outlook, recently upgrading Ghana’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.3% and projecting a further rise to 4.8% by 2026. In its Africa’s Pulse report, the Bank described Ghana’s medium-term trajectory as one of the most promising in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the World Bank joins the IMF in flagging “fragile investor sentiment” regarding transparency. This international perspective is critical: while the “numbers” look good to Washington, the “mechanics” of programs like the Gold-for-Reserves scheme remain under a microscope.
The Bank of Ghana’s Defense and the 2026 Strategic Exit
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has offered a different perspective, arguing that the IMF’s findings reflect long-standing structural issues. Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama stated the Bank’s reforms are “part of the solution to the IMF’s concerns, not evidence of intentional multiple exchange-rate management.” In a decisive move, the BoG officially exited small-scale gold trading on January 1, 2026, handing the segment entirely to the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod). Dr. Asiama firmly rejected claims that losses were hidden, stating, “the Bank has not instructed its auditors to remove losses from its books; audited figures remain intact.” However, recent disclosures show total losses exceeding GH₵7 billion between 2022 and 2024, confirming that while the strategy built reserves, the cost of doing so was steep.
Technical Extension: The Road to August 2026
In a significant update to the program timeline, the IMF announced in January 2026 that Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility has been extended by three months, from May to August 16, 2026. Dr. Adrian Alter clarified that the extension is “purely technical,” allowing the Fund to complete the final review using data from the end of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. This extension also involves modifications to the Primary Balance and non-oil revenue targets to align with the current disinflation trends and macroeconomic developments.
Political Friction: The “Mahama Reset” vs. NPP Critique
The domestic political response has been a battle of narratives. The newly inaugurated Mahama Administration has framed 2025 as the year of the “economic reset,” with Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson highlighting the 45% debt-to-GDP reduction as a historic achievement. President John Dramani Mahama, in his 2026 New Year address, stated that Ghana is exiting the program “with dignity, as partners and not as supplicants.” Conversely, the NPP opposition, led by Deputy General Secretary Haruna Mohammed, insists there is “little to celebrate,” accusing the government of persecuting former officials instead of focusing on long-term development.
Domestic Reactions: A Divided Outlook
On the ground, the reaction remains guarded in Accra. While headline inflation is at 5.4%, many in markets like Makola still feel the pinch of high utility tariffs. Traders express that while the current stability is a relief, the “exchange rate volatilities of the past make effective business planning impossible.”
Business Leaders and Africa-Wide Experts
Business sentiment has surged, with a PwC survey showing 70% of Ghanaian CEOs are confident in growth. However, regional experts warn that the $2.2 billion (approx. GH₵23.9 billion) energy sector shortfall remains a significant fiscal landmine that requires urgent resolution.
Globally, the mood is optimistic. Rating agencies including S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch all upgraded Ghana in late 2025. Investors view the Gold-for-Reserves controversy as a litmus test for Ghana’s commitment to “transparency, governance, and the rule of law.”
The Cost of Credibility
Ghana finds itself at a delicate intersection where impressive macroeconomic recovery meets a growing demand for institutional integrity. While the “surprising” growth and single-digit inflation of 2025 provide a necessary shield against immediate crisis, the
unresolved “gold ledger” debate threatens to erode the very trust the Fiscal Council was created to protect. For the recovery to be truly resilient, the government must move beyond meeting IMF benchmarks and embrace a culture of radical transparency. In the long run, the success of the 2025 reforms will be judged not by the volume of reserves accumulated, but by the ability of the state to account for every dollar spent in the pursuit of that stability.
