By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The Israeli military launched a massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday. This operation has resulted in a high number of casualties nationwide. Hospitals are currently overwhelmed by the influx of wounded. Many people are believed to be trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings. Israel described this as the largest wave of air strikes in the current conflict. The military reported hitting more than 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites within a ten-minute window.
Strategic Strikes Target Hezbollah Strongholds
The attacks targeted the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa Valley. These locations are primary areas where Hezbollah holds significant influence. The strikes followed hours after the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied a specific assertion by Pakistan. The Pakistani government had claimed that a ceasefire deal it helped mediate between the U.S. and Iran also covered the conflict in Lebanon. Israel has rejected this interpretation, maintaining that its campaign against Hezbollah remains a separate engagement.
Humanitarian Toll and Mass Displacement
The human cost of the escalation continues to mount. Across Lebanon, more than 1,500 people have been killed, including 130 children. The violence has displaced more than 1.2 million people, representing one in five members of the population. Most of the displaced are from Shia Muslim communities. Villages near the border have been destroyed as invading Israeli troops seek to establish a security buffer zone. Israeli authorities state the goal is to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure and push its fighters away from the border.
Concerns Over Long Term Occupation and Return
The scale of the destruction has raised significant concerns about the future of southern Lebanon. Observers fear that some areas may remain occupied even after the war ends. Many residents worry they may never be able to return to their homes. Despite the announcement of a ceasefire in the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, the Lebanese presidency said it would continue “efforts to include Lebanon in regional peace.” Hezbollah has not claimed any attacks since that deal was announced. The group stated it was on the “threshold of a major historic victory” and warned families to wait for a formal ceasefire before attempting to return home.
Roots of the Current Escalation
The latest surge in this decades-long conflict erupted when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel. This was in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening stages of the war. It also came in response to near-daily Israeli attacks on Lebanon that persisted despite a November 2024 ceasefire. Israeli officials had previously indicated their intention to continue the Lebanon campaign regardless of any deal with Iran. However, military sources quoted by Israeli media recently suggested the army had no intention to advance further. These sources acknowledged that they would not be able to disarm Hezbollah by force.
Resilience of Hezbollah Capabilities
Observers have expressed surprise at Hezbollah’s military capabilities in this conflict. It was widely believed the group had been severely weakened in their last war. Instead, the group has frequently launched rockets and drones into northern Israel and confronted Israeli troops on the ground. Within Lebanon, however, Hezbollah faces strong criticism. Many citizens blame the group for dragging the country into an unwanted war to defend the interests of its Iranian patron. Despite this, the group still maintains significant support among the Lebanese Shia population.
Internal Pressure and Sectarian Tensions
The displacement crisis has placed immense pressure on a country already struggling with economic collapse. Schools turned into shelters are full. Many people are sleeping in tents in public spaces or in their cars. The arrival of displaced families in new communities has led to a rise in sectarian tensions. Residents in these areas fear they could become the next targets of Israeli attacks. The Lebanese government had announced a plan to disarm Hezbollah after the 2024 ceasefire, but the group has refused to discuss its weapons. President Joseph Aoun has ruled out using force to disarm them, warning that such a move “could exacerbate divisions and lead to violence.”
Historic Diplomatic Offer Ignored
In response to the latest escalation, the Lebanese government made a historic announcement. It stated it was open to negotiate directly with Israel, despite the two nations having no diplomatic relations. Israel has so far ignored this offer. Meanwhile, maritime activity remains precarious. MarineTraffic reported on Wednesday that the first vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S.-Iran deal, identifying the Greek-owned NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach as having transited overnight. However, overall traffic remains low. Oil tanker traffic has been halted altogether following the Israeli attack on Lebanon, which shook the fragile ceasefire.
Confusion and High Stakes in the Strait
Uncertainty remains high in the maritime industry. Iran previously assured that vessels could navigate the strait safely, but with the caveat that passage is only possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.” A marine insurance executive noted that “the potential for Iran to heavily toll ships is a key sticking point.” The Financial Times reported that Iran plans to demand tolls in cryptocurrency and will use a spokesperson for the oil exporters’ union to confirm they will be inspecting each ship for weapons. Shipping companies remain in a holding pattern. One executive stated, “The most important for us is the safety of our crew members, and if we were deciding to transit, we need absolute guarantees.”
Conflicting Perspectives on Success
U.S. officials have characterized the ceasefire as a major achievement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated, “the strait is open.” Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine concurred, based on diplomatic negotiations. President Donald Trump shared an optimistic outlook on social media, stating the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz.” He wrote that “there will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process.” He added that the U.S. would be “just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well.” This followed his previous threats to attack Iran’s infrastructure unless the regime agreed to “Open the Fuckin’ Strait” and a warning that a “whole civilization will die” if a deal was not reached.
A Region Balanced on a Knife’s Edge
The divergence between the diplomatic optimism in Washington and the kinetic reality in Lebanon underscores the fragility of the current Middle Eastern landscape. While the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offers a glimmer of economic hope, the devastating bombardment of Lebanon suggests that a comprehensive regional peace remains elusive. As global markets watch the movement of bulk carriers through Iranian waters, the residents of Beirut and southern Lebanon remain focused on survival under the shadow of a conflict that refuses to subside. The coming days will determine if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can survive the strain of a widening war on its periphery, or if the lack of a formal agreement in Lebanon will continue to derail broader stabilization efforts.
