A new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has looked at the extent to which the global economic recession has been driven by voluntary social distancing and lockdown measures.
Government restrictions on business and individuals to curb the pandemic come at an economic cost.
The IMF research supports that view, but it also found that much of the downturn was due to voluntary social distancing. In other words, people choosing to avoid activities they feared might expose them to the risk of infection.
The effect was particularly marked in rich countries where working from home is often more feasible.
The report argues that while lockdowns impose short-term costs, they can generate a faster recovery if they lead to lower levels of infection and less voluntary distancing.
The report acknowledges that the analysis neglects important side effects of lockdowns, including on educational attainment and mental health. It says these are crucial areas for future research.
