By Magdalene Andoh
A new independent economic assessment has found that the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has delivered massive macroeconomic gains for the country, generating an estimated US$3.8 billion in additional foreign exchange in 2025 alone by sharply reducing gold smuggling and formalising artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) exports.
The findings are contained in a technical report titled “Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod)”, presented to GoldBod by economists from the University of Ghana and the University of Ghana Business School. The study was authored by Prof. Festus Ebo Turkson, Peter Junior Dotse, and Prof. Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako, and dated 4 January 2026.
According to the report, recorded ASM gold exports rose dramatically from 63.6 metric tonnes in 2024 to 103.0 tonnes in 2025 following GoldBod’s intervention. The authors estimate that the additional 39.4 tonnes represent gold that was previously smuggled out of the country but has now entered the formal system.
Using a conservative valuation of US$96.5 million per tonne, the formalised gold translates into US$3.8 billion in new foreign exchange inflows, significantly strengthening Ghana’s external position.
Benefits Far Outweigh BoG Trading Losses
The report directly addresses public concerns surrounding the US$214 million trading loss reported by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) and cited by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The economists conclude that GoldBod’s benefits overwhelm the reported loss by a wide margin, yielding a benefit–cost ratio of approximately 18 to 1.
“In break-even terms, formalising just 2.2 tonnes of gold would have been enough to offset the reported loss,” the report notes. “The actual scale of formalisation achieved is about 18 times larger.”
The authors further argue that the BoG loss has been widely misunderstood, explaining that much of it reflects accounting translation effects rather than real cash losses. Gold purchases are made at near-retail exchange rates to deter smuggling, while inflows are booked at lower interbank rates, creating a paper loss that does not reflect the true economic cost.
They estimate the actual economic cost—covering fees, purity losses, and offtake discounts—at around 2.5 per cent of gold value, far below headline figures.
Non-Debt FX Inflows Ease Pressure on the Economy
Beyond smuggling reduction, the report highlights the importance of GoldBod as a non-debt source of foreign exchange. GoldBod-enabled ASM exports reached US$10.8 billion in 2025, reducing Ghana’s need to borrow externally to shore up reserves.
Had Ghana borrowed equivalent funds on international markets, annual interest costs would have ranged between US$756 million and US$1.08 billion, the report estimates. Even when focusing only on the gold recovered from smuggling, avoided annual interest costs are placed at US$266–380 million—recurring savings that strengthen fiscal sustainability.
Wider Macroeconomic Gains
The inflows supported by GoldBod contributed to a range of broader macroeconomic improvements, including:
- Higher international reserves, estimated at US$11–12 billion
- Exchange-rate stabilisation and appreciation, outperforming IMF budget assumptions
- Lower domestic cost of external debt service, estimated at GHS 6.2 billion
- Reduced import bill valuation between January and October 2025, estimated at GHS 50.6 billion
- Disinflation, driven by reduced exchange-rate pass-through
A Stabilisation Tool, Not a Trading Firm
The authors caution against evaluating GoldBod as a profit-maximising trading entity. Instead, they argue it should be seen as a macroeconomic stabilisation and formalisation tool, similar to other policy instruments that carry costs but deliver outsized national benefits.
Among their recommendations are calls to sustain price competitiveness to prevent a return of smuggling, improve transparency in BoG reporting, strengthen governance and oversight, and explicitly budget for GoldBod’s policy costs as a quasi-fiscal expense.
“Based on the available evidence, the report concludes that GoldBod represents a high-return policy intervention for Ghana’s economy. By converting illicit gold flows into formal foreign exchange, the programme has strengthened the country’s external position, reduced dependence on costly borrowing, and supported overall macroeconomic stability.”
