By: Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The fallout from the internal primary in Ayawaso East has ignited a national conversation on the price of political loyalty and the resilience of democratic institutions in Ghana. While the declaration of a winner marks the end of a ballot count, it signals the beginning of a profound ethical reckoning for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the Ghanaian electorate. The internal race for the NDC flag in Ayawaso East ended with a decisive yet controversial victory for Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed. On Saturday, February 7, 2026, the veteran politician secured his place on the ballot for the upcoming March 3, 2026, by-election. While the numbers suggest a clear preference, the atmosphere surrounding the polls reflects a deeper tension within Ghanaian political culture. The narrow margin over his closest rival, Hajia Amina Adam—who secured 399 votes to Jamal’s 431—indicates a constituency that is deeply engaged but also divided by the methods used to secure loyalty. This contest was not merely about picking a candidate; it was a high-stakes litmus test for the party’s internal integrity ahead of a critical national cycle.
Polling Discrepancies and the Science of Data
Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, admitted his pre-election projections failed to accurately predict the primary outcome. His model originally
projected Hajia Amina Adam to lead with 54% support while capping Baba Jamal at 38%. The final results saw Adam underperform at 41% and Jamal outperform expectations with 45%. Dankwah noted that while smaller candidates fell within the margin of error, the top tier results exceeded his model’s parameters. He attributed this divergence to the influence of campaign inducements, suggesting that unconventional “bribes” defeated scientific data. This admission has sparked a fresh national debate regarding the reliability of polling in environments where local campaign strategies can rapidly shift delegate behavior.
Executive Recall and Public Integrity
In a swift response to the growing controversy, President John Dramani Mahama ordered the immediate recall of Baba Jamal from his post as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria on February 7, 2026. The Presidency noted that Jamal’s status as a “serving public officer” necessitated decisive action to avoid any perception of impropriety. This recall aims to preserve the integrity of public office while the NDC conducts its internal probe. Felix Kwakye Ofosu, Minister for Government Communications, clarified that the decision is guided by the strict standards of conduct expected of political appointees.
The Path to an Empty Seat
The sudden vacancy in the Ayawaso East constituency followed the untimely passing of the incumbent Member of Parliament, Naser Toure Mahama, on January 4, 2026. The late legislator was a well-respected figure who held the seat for over a decade, providing a stable voice for the Nima and Mamobi enclaves. “He was a father figure to many in this community,” a local elder noted, highlighting the emotional weight of this transition. His death triggered the constitutional requirement for a by-election within sixty days of the vacancy. This timeline forced political parties into a high-speed mobilization to find a successor capable of holding the fort in a stronghold often considered a “safe haven” for the NDC. The urgency of the situation set the stage for a “keenly contested primary” that saw five aspirants fight for the chance to finish the late MP’s term.
The NDC Choice: Baba Jamal
Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed is no stranger to the upper echelons of power or the grit of local campaigning. Serving as a high-ranking diplomat and former parliamentarian, his victory is a testament to his deep-rooted network. Speaking after his win, he noted the victory was “only possible through divine intervention,” acknowledging that the process had been “one of the most challenging moments” for his family and team. However, the optics of his campaign have drawn sharp criticism. He remains a polarizing figure who balances a reputation for grassroots generosity with the heavy-handed mechanics of modern electoral politics.
The Ethics of Influence: Gifts vs. Vote Buying
The most polarizing aspect of this primary was the distribution of 32-inch television sets, food, and boiled eggs to delegates—an act that sparked formal vote-buying allegations reaching the highest levels of the NDC. This controversy centers on a fine legal and ethical line: whether these items constitute traditional political “gifts” of hospitality or a criminal transactional exchange. In Ghana, legal frameworks distinguish these acts by intent; if a benefit is conditional upon a vote, it crosses into illegal inducement.
Baba Jamal has dismissed the accusations, framing the distributions as gestures of long-standing grassroots generosity. “Is this the first time I am giving things to people?” Jamal asked defiantly, arguing that the moral failure lies not with the giver, but with any voter who allows a gift to influence their choice. However, party leadership and critics disagree, with General Secretary Fifi Fiavi Kwetey condemning the acts as a direct affront to the party’s core principles.
For the residents of Ayawaso East, this “TV politics” underscores a widening gap between electoral theater and the community’s urgent need for infrastructure and economic stability. “We need roads and better drainage, not just items during elections,” one resident remarked. This sentiment reflects a growing national fatigue among Ghanaians who fear their democratic voice is being treated as a commodity rather than a right.
The NPP Strategy and Contender
The New Patriotic Party (NPP) enters this race with a strategic disadvantage in an NDC stronghold but remains undeterred. While the NDC was embroiled in its primary, the
NPP leadership, led by General Secretary Justin Koduah, focused on vetting a candidate capable of breaking the “Nima-Mamobi” NDC dominance. “The NPP will contest; we are currently searching for a suitable candidate,” Koduah confirmed shortly after the vacancy occurred. The party has historically struggled in this enclave, yet they view the current internal NDC friction as a window of opportunity. The NPP’s objective is to present a candidate who emphasizes development over traditional party loyalty.
The Constitution and the Electoral Commission
The 1992 Constitution of Ghana provides a strict framework for these occurrences. Under Article 112(5), the Electoral Commission is mandated to organize a by-election to ensure that no constituency remains without representation for more than three months. The EC has set March 3, 2026, as the day for the final showdown, with nominations officially being received between February 9 and February 11, 2026. Officials have emphasized that while internal party conduct is largely a private matter, the general election will be held to the highest standards of transparency and fairness.
Party Leadership and the Investigation
The NDC national leadership has taken a stern public stance, announcing an “immediate launch of investigations” into the reports of bribery. By doing so, the party seeks to signal to the national electorate that it values its “reset agenda.” The statement signed by Fifi Fiavi Kwetey warned of “swift disciplinary action against any candidate found culpable.” However, the challenge remains in enforcement. With Jamal already declared the winner and preparing for the March 3 deadline, the party faces a dilemma: punish their candidate and risk losing the seat, or ignore the findings and risk their moral authority.
Moving Toward the By-Election
As the dust settles on the primary, the focus shifts to the general contest. Baba Jamal has called for unity, recognizing that a fractured party cannot easily withstand a determined opposition. “The primary should ultimately strengthen the party rather than divide it,” he stated. The upcoming weeks will test whether the wounds from the primary can heal. In the words of a local political observer, ‘A house divided against itself cannot stand, but a house built on incentives alone may find its foundation is made of sand.’
The March 3 vote will determine if Ayawaso East remains an NDC fortress or if the vote buying allegations have finally opened the gates for a change.
