By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
Iran, the United States, and Israel reached a tentative, two-week ceasefire Wednesday in a war that has ravaged the Middle East and disrupted global energy markets. President Donald Trump agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure, backing off threats to imminently order the destruction of Iran’s “whole civilization.” The reprieve, occurring five weeks after the U.S. and Israel launched the war, is subject to the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” according to a post by Trump on Truth Social.
President Trump credited the breakthrough to high-stakes diplomatic intervention from Pakistan, citing pivotal conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Field Marshal Asim Munir. Trump also suggested that China played a role in pushing Tehran to the table—a claim supported by the Chinese embassy in Washington, which stated they have been “working to help bring about a ceasefire.” Declaring the agreement a “double sided CEASEFIRE,” Trump indicated the pause would allow diplomacy to take center stage in Islamabad starting this Friday. The decision came less than two hours before a self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline that would have triggered major strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure.
Markets Surge as Global Oil Chokepoint Reopens
The announcement triggered immediate and dramatic reactions in global markets. Oil prices plunged as much as 16% as news broke that the vital energy artery would resume operations. Simultaneously, U.S. stock futures rose sharply on the news of a pause in hostilities. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply and had been largely blocked since the conflict began on Feb. 28.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that ships will be allowed safe passage during the two-week interval “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” Reports suggest the new arrangement involves Iranian and Omani authorities collecting shipping fees to fund Iranian reconstruction, with some estimates suggesting fees as high as $2 million per vessel.
However, shipping data shows little movement six hours after the announcement. Charlie Brown, a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran, warned that “shipowners are still waiting for authoritative guidance from naval security channels and marine war-risk insurers” before testing the route. Despite the joint oversight, Trump noted that U.S. forces will remain “just hangin’ around” to ensure the process remains secure.
Apocalyptic Rhetoric and Immediate Violations
The ceasefire followed a period of extreme tension. On Sunday, President Trump used social media to demand Iran “Open the Fuckin’ Strait,” threatening that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” The transition to the truce remains volatile; shortly after Trump’s announcement, sirens sounded across the Gulf and Israel as missile attacks were reported in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. In Abu Dhabi, authorities responded to a fire at a gas processing facility following an intercepted threat. Iran’s supreme leader has since instructed all military units to stop firing, though officials noted the decentralized defense strategy means it may take time for the order to reach every unit.
Prime Minister Sharif of Pakistan requested a two-week extension of the deadline Tuesday, urging a “goodwill gesture.” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed this, calling on all parties to “abide by the terms of the ceasefire.” International reaction has been mixed; Japanese and Egyptian officials characterized the move as a “positive step,” while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticized Trump’s earlier rhetoric regarding civilian infrastructure as an “extraordinary statement to make.”
Israel’s Conditional Backing and Security Red Lines
Jerusalem’s support for the pause is strictly transactional and contingent on two triggers: the immediate resumption of global shipping and a total halt to proxy attacks on Israeli soil. Within the Israeli security establishment, the ceasefire has been met with palpable skepticism. In a statement on X, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office clarified that while Israel supports the decision to suspend strikes on Iran, “the two-week
ceasefire does not include Lebanon.” Israel maintains its right to target Hezbollah militants in the country’s south, where Israeli forces have launched a ground invasion citing security concerns. For Israel, the Islamabad summit is viewed as a test of whether the U.S. can extract Iran’s highly enriched uranium—a security “red line” that Netanyahu has signaled remains non-negotiable.
The Lebanon Rift and Proxy Pauses
A significant diplomatic gap remains regarding the status of the northern front. While Pakistan claims the truce is universal, Israel continues its major military campaign against Hezbollah, which began launching retaliatory strikes after the broader war was triggered on Feb. 28. Early Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike in Sidon killed eight people, including children, and caused extensive damage to Hiram Hospital. Lebanon’s health ministry reports that at least 1,530 people have been killed since the conflict escalated in early March.
In Iraq, pro-Iranian militias announced they would suspend operations for the duration of the window. This announcement follows the release of American journalist Shelly Kittleson, who was kidnapped by the Kataib Hezbollah militia group last month and was confirmed safe by officials Tuesday.
Dueling Narratives and Nuclear Stakes
Both Washington and Tehran have framed the ceasefire as a strategic triumph. The White House called the move “a victory for the United States,” with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating the U.S. “achieved and exceeded core military objectives in 38 days.”
President Trump described a 10-point proposal from Iran as a “workable basis,” though he later labeled parts of it a “FRAUD.” Crucially, Trump told reporters that Iran’s stockpile of nearly 900 lbs of highly enriched uranium will be “perfectly taken care of,” or he “wouldn’t have settled.”
Tehran offered a vastly different interpretation, with the Supreme National Security Council declaring the U.S. has “surrendered to the will of the Iranian people.” Iranian state media further claimed the U.S. has agreed “in principle” to accept Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment—a claim that has sparked immediate domestic backlash in the U.S., where Senator Lindsey Graham insisted that Congress must approve any proposal to end the war.
The durability of this two-week reprieve rests on whether the parties can move past the rhetoric of “total victory” to address the underlying security fears that triggered the conflict. As commercial vessels begin the tentative trek back toward the Strait of Hormuz, the international community remains divided on whether this moment marks a
genuine diplomatic pivot or merely a tactical pause before a far more devastating escalation.
