By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The seventeenth day of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has seen a dramatic escalation in economic and regional instability. President Donald Trump is currently moving to garner international support for securing the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway serves as a primary artery for global energy. Transport through the lane has effectively ground to a halt since the onset of hostilities.
President Trump claimed the United States has received “some positive response” after reaching out to various nations for maritime assistance. However, he noted that a few countries “would rather not get involved.” To date, no sovereign nation has made a firm commitment to dispatching warships. “Some of the countries have minesweepers… some of the countries have a certain type of boat that could help us,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. Specifically, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated, “We have not yet made any decisions whatsoever regarding the dispatch of naval vessels,” noting that Tokyo is only “examining what Japan can do independently within our legal framework.” The President warned that NATO faces a “very bad” future if U.S. allies fail to assist, adding that “I’ve long said that NATO is a one-way street.”
Rising Costs and Maritime Peril
The economic consequences of the maritime closure are manifesting rapidly. The price of oil rose to its highest level since July 2022 on Sunday evening. Brent crude ascended to approximately $106.12 a barrel. U.S. oil followed a similar trajectory, rising to $101.53. Domestic gas prices have surged 24% since the war began, reaching an average of $3.70 a gallon. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright characterized the spike as “short-term pain” necessary to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Analysts at Kpler warn that even if the war ended today, it could take one to three months to get the strait operational again.
This surge comes as the UK’s maritime agency maintains a “critical” threat level for the strait. The danger was underscored by the arrival of twenty crew members in Bangkok following an Iranian attack on the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree, which the IRGC claimed had “disregarded warnings.” A Liberian-flagged vessel, the Express Rome, was also reportedly struck by Iranian projectiles after ignoring similar warnings.
Military Strategy and Domestic Friction
Military objectives between Washington and Jerusalem appear to be coalescing. Trump stated that the U.S. and Israel are largely aligned, though he acknowledged their objectives may not be identical. “I think we have similar objectives, really, but could be a little bit different,” Trump said. Administration officials suggested the conflict could conclude within weeks or “sooner.” Conversely, Israel has informed international media of plans to strike “thousands” of targets over the next three weeks. On Sunday, Israel reported striking more than 200 targets, specifically focusing on Iranian ballistic missile capabilities and air defense systems.
At home, Trump faced scrutiny over a PAC fundraising email featuring a “dignified transfer” photo of fallen U.S. service members. “I didn’t see it,” Trump said of the email, “but there’s nobody that’s better… to the military than me.” Simultaneously, the President touted FCC Chair Brendan Carr’s threats to look at the licenses of “Unpatriotic ‘News’ Organizations” for their war coverage, labeling some reporting as “criminal.”
Humanitarian Crisis and Global Diplomacy
The humanitarian and environmental costs are mounting. More than 2,200 people across the Middle East have died. Iran’s ambassador to the UN reported over 1,300 deaths in Iran alone. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Israeli bombings of fuel depots “violate international law” and amount to “ecocide.” He further asserted that “Israel must be punished for its war crimes.” Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly fired 700 missiles and 3,600 drones at U.S. and Israeli targets. Domestically, Iran’s internal situation has darkened as a weeks-long internet shutdown “dropped abruptly” on Sunday.
Regional spillover continues to affect neutral hubs. A “drone-related incident” near Dubai International Airport ignited a fuel tank fire on Monday morning. Witness Raj Dholakia told press reports, “There were hundreds of people—resting, sleeping or walking—everyone was told to go to the nearest staircase.” In Iraq, rockets struck facilities near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, wounding five people. United Nations peacekeepers in Lebanon also reported being fired upon by non-state armed groups. French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to end “unacceptable attacks,” noting that France is deploying an aircraft carrier to the region.
Implications for Global Markets and African Economies
As the conflict enters its third week, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20% of global oil—is creating a ripple effect across the African continent. For nations like Ghana, the spike in Brent crude and jet fuel costs threatens to increase the price of imported goods, transport, and groceries. While Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar reported that talks with Tehran are “yielding results” after two Indian-flagged tankers passed safely, the broader international community remains hesitant. “Certainly, from India’s perspective, it is better that we reason and we co-ordinate and we get a solution than we don’t,” Jaishankar told the Financial Times. However, tensions remain high with Western allies; Trump expressed frustration with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, stating, “we need these ships before we win, not after we win.”
Internal Iranian pressures are also visible abroad. Several members of the Iranian women’s national soccer team recently withdrew asylum claims in Australia to return home. These players had initially sought refuge during the Women’s Asian Cup following their refusal to sing the national anthem, an act that led hardliners at home to label them “wartime traitors.” This occurred shortly before the strike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Australian Assistant Foreign Affairs Minister Matt Thistlethwaite noted, “we can’t cut off communication” between the players and Iranian officials.
Global stakeholders and emerging economies now watch as the war of attrition tests the limits of global diplomacy, leaving the world to balance the immediate need for energy security against the long-term cost of regional destabilization.
