By Ashiadey Dotse
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’, with a Positive Outlook, citing strong economic growth, declining public debt, and improved fiscal discipline.
In a statement released on Friday, May 8, 2026, Fitch said the upgrade reflects a sharp reduction in Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio, supported by strong real GDP growth, fiscal consolidation measures, appreciation of the cedi, and a significant rise in international reserves.
The agency also noted that the Positive Outlook is based on expectations that government will maintain prudent fiscal policies, improve public financial management, and continue efforts to stabilize the economy.
Fitch projected that Ghana’s public debt will decline further to 46% of GDP by 2027, below the projected average for countries with a similar ‘B’ rating. The agency said the decline follows a 21 percentage-point drop in 2025, driven mainly by cedi appreciation and fiscal reforms.
According to Fitch, Ghana’s international reserves are expected to continue rising due to strong current account surpluses, foreign direct investment inflows, and support from multilateral institutions. The agency forecasts reserves to reach 4.8 months of current external payments by 2027, compared to the ‘B’ median forecast of 3.9 months.
Fitch revealed that Ghana’s unencumbered reserves increased by 5.4 billion dollars in 2025 to 12.3 billion dollars, equivalent to 3.6 months of external payments.
The agency also projected that Ghana’s current account surplus will remain strong in 2026 after recording a historic surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025. Fitch attributed this to high global gold prices and strong export performance.
On fiscal management, Fitch said Ghana is expected to achieve its primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027, following a record surplus of 2.9% in 2025.
The agency commended improvements in public financial management, saying they reduce the risk of fiscal slippages. It however noted that interest costs remain high, with the interest-to-revenue ratio expected to stay around 20% through 2027.
Fitch stated that Ghana returned to the domestic bond market in April 2026 after relying mainly on treasury bills since the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme in 2023. The country issued a seven-year bond worth 3.8 billion Ghana cedis.
Inflation was also highlighted as an area of improvement. Fitch said inflation slowed to 3.2% in March 2026, the lowest level since 1999, before rising slightly to 3.4% in April.
The agency expects inflation to remain on a declining trend over the next two years, while the Bank of Ghana is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to control inflation risks.
Fitch further projected that Ghana’s economy will maintain strong growth, averaging about 5% through 2027, supported by gold mining, improved consumer confidence, lower borrowing costs, and a less restrictive fiscal policy environment.
Despite the positive outlook, Fitch warned that weaker fiscal performance, rising debt service costs, or failure to build external reserves could lead to a downgrade in future.
The agency also indicated that sustained fiscal reforms, lower debt service costs, and continued growth in international reserves could result in another upgrade for Ghana in the coming years.
