By: Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
Reporting highlights:
- Stranded Surplus: Farmers are holding 1.2 million tonnes of unsold grain because of the export ban and regional trade disruptions.
- The Price Squeeze: While the stronger Cedi has lowered input costs, it has crashed farm-gate prices, leaving growers with an estimated GH₵5 billion in unsold paddy rice.
- Sovereignty Risk: Many farmers are now planning production cuts for next season to avoid further debt, which could flip today’s surplus into a future shortage.
Ghana stands at a precarious crossroads where overflowing warehouses meet empty stomachs. The November 2025 Food Security Monitor report by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)—produced with institutional support from the United Kingdom Government (FCDO), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation—reveals a striking contradiction. While national harvests are surging, 23.96% of Ghanaians, representing about 8 million people, now struggle with Insufficient Food Consumption (IFC).
This paradox suggests that availability is no longer the primary hurdle; instead, the “last mile” of affordability is failing. The data shows a staggering 55.6% rise in food insecurity since 2023, indicating that economic stability for the average household is drifting further away from agricultural productivity.
The 2024 Drought and the Roots of Protectionism
West African food security is increasingly dictated by geopolitical shifts and climate legacies. Ghana’s decision to maintain a grain export ban is rooted in the severe 2024 dry spell, which decimated crops in eight regions and caused an estimated GH₵22.2 billion in crop revenue losses (with roughly GH₵3.5 billion in direct investment losses for smallholders). While the ban aimed to stabilize domestic supply after this shock, it has now trapped farmers in a cycle of oversupply.
“Regional informal trade channels that previously absorbed surplus have been disrupted by military rule in Burkina Faso and policy changes in Nigeria,” the AGRA report notes. Without the ability to export to hungry neighbors, farmers are left holding 1.2 million metric tonnes of unsold grain.
The Farmer’s Dilemma and the Food Sovereignty Warning
The agricultural backbone of the nation is bending under the weight of its own success. The Chamber of Agribusiness Ghana (CAG) has warned that the glut is destabilizing the sector, with US$330 million (GH₵5 billion) worth of paddy rice alone lying unsold.
In the 2026 Budget Statement (presented on November 13, 2025), the government—under the authority of President John Dramani Mahama—directed an emergency release of GH₵200 million (US$18 million) to the National Food Buffer Stock Company (NAFCO). However, while NAFCO’s Producer Price Determination Committee set a floor price of GH₵5 per kilogram for paddy rice to protect incomes, the market remains flooded with smuggled rice. This creates a dire Food Sovereignty crisis: as local prices crash, many Ghanaian farmers are planning to abandon production for the next season, a move that could turn today’s surplus into tomorrow’s famine.
Macroeconomic Clarity: The Cedi and Food Inflation
A key driver of recent market shifts is the easing of food inflation, which plummeted toward the 6% mark in November 2025. This disinflation has been largely fueled by the appreciation of the Ghanaian Cedi, which emerged as a top global performer in 2025, rallying roughly 35% against the US Dollar. While the stronger currency has lowered the cost of imported inputs like fertilizer, it has created a “price squeeze” for local producers. Rural incomes remain tied to the suppressed prices of unsold local crops, even as the cost of living remains high due to previous inflationary peaks.
Voices from the Field
The disconnect between falling prices and rising hunger is a matter of survival. “We see the food in the markets, and the prices are coming down, but my pocket is still empty,” says Ebo Dadson, a petty trader in Accra. On the production side, the frustration is even more acute. “I have bags of maize stacked to the ceiling, but no one is buying at a price that pays back my fertilizer loan,” explains Naa Dei Okai, a farmer in the Bono Region. Kwame Afrifa, Executive Secretary of the Soya Value Chain Association of Ghana, put it bluntly: “This issue has become a matter of economic justice and human rights.”
Comparative Advantage and Regional Volatility
Despite the internal struggle, the AGRA report characterizes Ghana’s situation as “moderately low” compared to its neighbors. Elsewhere, the situation is catastrophic: Niger faces a crisis with 76.6% (21.4M) of its population facing IFC, followed by Mali (52.4%) and Burkina Faso (46.5%).
In Nigeria, where rice prices fell 13.3% but remain elevated, 56.4 million people are in crisis. These neighbors represent the natural markets for Ghana’s surplus. By
maintaining a strict export ban, Ghana is forfeiting a massive opportunity for regional leadership and trade dominance that could stabilize its own agricultural sector while saving lives across the Sahel.
The Infrastructure of Hunger and Policy Needs
To bridge this gap, Ghana must look beyond harvest totals. The projected 10.4% increase in regional cereal output (82.9 million tonnes) is a victory for nature, but a failure for policy. Addressing the 55.6% rise in food insecurity requires more than just grain bans. Experts suggest a three-month moratorium on rice imports and better credit facilities for smallholders are vital to clear the stranded grains and prevent a total collapse of the domestic farming value chain.
A Continent at the Crossroads of Dignity
The tragedy of the Ghanaian farmer is not a failure of the land, but a failure of the link between the field and the fork. For Ghana—and indeed for Africa—the “Paradox of Plenty” is a stark reminder that true food security is not measured in metric tonnes, but in the dignity of a fair price for the grower and an affordable plate for the worker. As we look toward 2026, the mandate is clear: we must stop punishing productivity with poverty. By clearing the barriers to regional trade and honoring the hands that feed the nation, Ghana can move from a state of “moderately low” crisis to one of shared prosperity. The warehouses are full; it is time to ensure the pockets follow suit.
