By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
The 40th day of the Middle East conflict has pushed a nascent diplomatic breakthrough to the brink of collapse. Just hours after the United States announced a two-week ceasefire intended to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran, a massive Israeli air campaign in Lebanon and a retaliatory shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz have revived fears of a total regional conflagration. The diplomatic progress achieved earlier this week is now being tested by conflicting interpretations of the agreement’s scope.
Military Strikes Shatter Brief Calm
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched what they described as the largest coordinated strike on Lebanon since the war began, targeting over 100 sites in 10 minutes. The Lebanese health ministry reported at least 182 fatalities and nearly 900 wounded. The human cost prompted Lebanese Minister of Economy Amer Bisat to tell the media that the country was “forced into this war” by external parties. “We are paying a devastating price for this war, a war that was imposed on us,” Bisat added, calling for a “sovereign-led ceasefire.”
In response, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel on Thursday. While the Trump administration maintains operations in Lebanon are excluded from the US-Iran deal, Tehran and Pakistan—the key broker of the talks—insist Lebanon is covered. This rift has sparked a wave of international condemnation. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez labeled the strikes “intolerable,” while Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador, warning against a “second Gaza.” Turkey’s foreign ministry denounced the strikes “in the strongest terms,” while Qatar called on the international community to halt what it termed “brutal massacres.”
Maritime Gridlock and Supply Chain Shocks
The maritime security situation remains dire as the IRGC announced that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped. The human cost of this blockade was underscored by the confirmed deaths of three Thai sailors from the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree following an earlier attack, a grim reminder of the stakes for global shipping. While Tehran initially suggested safe passage would be possible, it maintained that any transit remains subject to “coordination with its armed forces.”
This move contradicts President Donald Trump’s declaration that the waterway “WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.” The closure is now resonating globally; Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the world is “hostage” to the ceasefire’s success as consumers pay a “hefty” price. Simultaneously, South Korea—which provides nearly 69% of US jet fuel imports, has begun paring back exports to prioritize domestic stability.
The energy crisis has forced regional pivots. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West Pipeline to bypass the shuttered Strait. This pipeline connects the Abqaiq fields to the Red Sea, serving as a critical but strained artery for global oil as the waterway remains impassable.
A Precarious Silence in the Gulf
Despite the tension, a significant milestone was reached at dawn in the Gulf: for the first time in six weeks, there were no reports of overnight drone or missile strikes against Gulf states. Public defense channels in the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia—which intercepted dozens of missiles as recently as Wednesday afternoon—have gone quiet, indicating that Iran’s dispersed forces have, for now, ceased active fire.
Infrastructure and Military Assessments
New satellite imagery shows plumes of thick black smoke rising from Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq processing facility, following an Iranian attack just hours after the truce was announced. The facility provides roughly 5% of global oil supplies. Market volatility remains extreme; while oil prices saw a record 16.4% single-day plunge on Wednesday following the ceasefire news, prices began a sharp 2.6% climb on Thursday as the Abqaiq damage was assessed.
In Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth proclaimed a “decisive military victory,” noting the destruction of 800 drone storage facilities. However, military analysts
remain skeptical, noting that the Pentagon has not provided the “denominator”—the number of surviving missiles. Analysts also point to the high survival rate of the IRGC’s small attack boats, which can be devastating in chokepoints. Intelligence reports suggest thousands of one-way attack drones and half of Iran’s launchers remain intact, meaning the regime “can still shoot.”
Trump Warns of ‘Next Conquest’
In a late-night post on Truth Social, President Trump clarified that all American assets will remain “in place, in and around, Iran” until a “REAL AGREEMENT” is fully honored. He issued a stark warning that any breach would trigger a military response “bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.” Trump added that the U.S. military is currently “Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest,” concluding with the declaration: “AMERICA IS BACK!”
While Trump believes China played a “top-level” role in the negotiations, Beijing has remained tight-lipped, only stating it has “worked actively” for peace. Domestic reaction is mixed; within the Iranian diaspora in the U.S., some expressed relief at the pause in strikes, while others told reporters that a deal “only helps the IRGC.”
Uncertain Path to Islamabad Negotiations
The Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night. While media reports suggest Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may lead the talks, he recently described negotiations as “unreasonable” following the strikes in Lebanon. Analysts describe Ghalibaf as a pragmatic regime insider with an “instinct for preservation,” whose involvement could signal a militarized but disciplined negotiating stance.
The core of the dispute rests on deeply divergent demands. While Washington had issued a 15-point proposal, Tehran reportedly countered with a 10-point plan requiring a total end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the lifting of all sanctions. President Trump used social media to dismiss reports of this 10-point plan as “totally fake.” Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the Saturday talks, noted that at least three different versions of the proposals are currently circulating, including one he dismissed as likely “written by ChatGPT.”
Geopolitical Brinkmanship and the Quest for Stability
The success of the Islamabad talks hinges on a fundamental reconciliation of priorities: Washington’s demand for a permanently open Strait of Hormuz and the absence of Iranian nuclear weapons, versus Tehran’s demand for regional security that includes its proxies. While the cessation of missile fire in the Gulf offers a temporary reprieve, the profound disagreement over the inclusion of Lebanon and the continued physical closure of the world’s most vital energy chokepoint suggest that the transition from a fragile truce to a durable peace remains perilous.
