By Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent
Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz remains open to global maritime traffic with the specific exclusion of vessels linked to its “enemies.” The announcement follows a 48-hour ultimatum from U.S. President Donald Trump to fully reopen the waterway or face the destruction of Iranian power plants. In response, Tehran threatened on Sunday to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli energy infrastructure if its own facilities are targeted.
Strategic Conditions for Maritime Transit
Tehran insists that the waterway is accessible under defined security protocols. Seyed Ali Mousavi, Iran’s Representative to the UN’s IMO, stated that “the Strait of Hormuz is open to everyone except enemies.” Mousavi noted that navigation requires “coordination for security and safety arrangements.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified that Iran seeks a “comprehensive and lasting end to the war” rather than a simple ceasefire. He noted that negotiations are ongoing to facilitate safe passage for Japanese vessels. However, restrictions remain for countries involved in attacks against Iran.
Rising Tensions and the 48-Hour Deadline
President Trump escalated the situation via Truth Social, warning of strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.
“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” Trump wrote. This marks a dramatic reversal from Friday, when Trump claimed the U.S. was “getting very close to meeting our objectives” and considering “winding down” military efforts. Trump later told reporters, “You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.” He added of the Iranian military, “They don’t have a navy. They don’t have an air force. They don’t have any equipment.”
Tehran Shifts to Offensive Doctrine: The “Darkness” Warning
The Iranian leadership has responded to the ultimatum by signaling a fundamental shift in its military posture. The commander of Iran’s armed forces headquarters announced Sunday that the nation’s military doctrine has officially transitioned from “defensive to offensive,” warning that “new surprises are on the way.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf further escalated the rhetoric, stating on social media that any strike on Iranian power plants would lead to the “irreversible destruction” of critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Qalibaf warned that regional assets would become “legitimate targets,” a move intended to spark a long-term surge in global oil prices. Backing this threat, state-aligned media outlet Mehr News published a map of Gulf power plants with the caption, “Say goodbye to electricity,” asserting that 70% to 80% of the region’s major plants sit within Iran’s strike range. The Nournews Agency added that while the U.S. claims energy independence, a multi-layered retaliation would expose deep vulnerabilities and trigger a cascade of economic and environmental crises.
Retaliatory Warnings and Nuclear Site Strikes
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has entered its fourth week. Late Saturday, Tehran struck the southern Israeli towns of Dimona and Arad. The Israeli military confirmed its defenses failed to intercept missiles hitting these areas, which house Israel’s secretive nuclear reactor. Israeli rescue services reported dozens injured, including a 4-year-old girl in serious condition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it “a very difficult evening.”
The strikes followed reports that U.S.-Israeli forces attacked the Shahid Ahmadi-Roshan Natanz nuclear complex. While technical experts and the The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found “no abnormal radiation levels,” the regional death toll has now climbed to over 1,500 in Iran and 1,000 in Lebanon. Israel also attacked Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, and Ramsar, where three members of one family were killed in a residential strike. Casualties have also been reported in Iraq, Israel, the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain.
Long-Range Escalation and Global Response
Iran also targeted the joint U.S.-U.K. military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean with a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile. While the attack was unsuccessful, the U.K. responded by authorizing U.S. forces to use British bases for “defensive operations” to degrade missile sites. Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir warned that Iranian missiles now put European capitals like Berlin, Paris, and Rome within “direct threat range.” Regional diplomacy has intensified. 22 countries released a joint statement condemning Iran’s closure of the Strait. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for an “immediate cessation” of aggression during a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, urging the BRICS bloc to intervene.
Egypt’s President el-Sissi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stressed that Iranian escalation endangers regional safety. In a show of solidarity with the Gulf, Saudi Arabia downed 20 Iranian drones and expelled several Iranian diplomats. Conversely, Iranian gas supplies to Iraq reportedly resumed at five million cubic meters per day on Saturday after a brief cutoff.
Impact on Global Energy Markets
Around 20% of global oil trade normally passes through the strait, but daily transit calls have tumbled to nearly zero. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose to $112.19 (approx. GH₵1,221) on Friday. To ease prices, the Trump administration waived sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea for 30 days, a move expected to bring 140 billion barrels to global markets.
The African Fallout: Surging Pump Prices and Inflation
The standoff has triggered an immediate crisis for oil-importing African nations like Ghana. The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) warned that petrol prices in Ghana could hit GH₵17 per litre if the conflict persists. Currently, petrol has
exceeded GH₵12.40 per litre, while diesel is retailing near GH₵15.60. These surges threaten to drive up transport fares and the cost of basic goods across the continent.
A Global Economy at a Crossroads
Ultimately, the standoff presents a high-stakes test of global resolve. While Tehran frames its maritime restrictions as a defensive necessity, Washington and its G7 allies view the move as an illegal chokehold on the global economy. As the 48-hour clock winds down, the international community remains caught between the threat of a widened kinetic war and the certainty of a deepening global energy crisis.
