By Benjamin Nii Nai Anyetei
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has projected that support for Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed in the Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary is unlikely to exceed 38 per cent, based on recent polling data.
According to Mr Dankwah, Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, is firmly in the lead with an estimated 54 per cent support ahead of the primary scheduled for today Saturday, February 7, 2026
He explained that even under the most favourable circumstances for Baba Jamal, the data point to a wide gap between the two leading contenders, making a dramatic last-minute shift in voter preference highly unlikely.
Mr Dankwah noted that the projection carries a margin of error of about 3.2 per cent, which still leaves Hajia Amina Adam comfortably ahead at the narrowest end of the range.
Addressing internal party discussions about Hajia Amina Adam’s candidature, the pollster revealed that 66 per cent of NDC voters surveyed disagreed with the view that it was wrong for her to contest the seat. Among delegates, 58 per cent also rejected that argument.
He said this indicates that attempts by some party actors to discourage her bid are not resonating with party members at the grassroots level, describing it as a misreading of the political dynamics in Ayawaso East.
Based on the data, Mr Dankwah projected that Hajia Amina Adam is on course to win the primary with about 54 per cent, while Baba Jamal’s highest attainable share would be around 38 per cent.
