By Benjamin Nii Nai Anyetei
The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has acknowledged that his pre-election polling projections failed to accurately predict the outcome of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary in the Ayawaso East Constituency.
In a post on his official Facebook page, Mr Dankwah admitted that his forecast for the closely contested primary did not align with the final results. His pre-election model had projected Hajia Amina Adam to lead with about 54% support among delegates, while Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, was expected to secure no more than 38%.
“The just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East handed me a defeat, but I will not issue any formal statement,” Mr Dankwah wrote.
He subsequently analysed the performance of the candidates against his Model 1 projections, which carried a ±3% margin of error.
According to Mr Dankwah:
- Mohammed Ramme’s 9% vote share fell within the upper limit of the predicted margin of error.
- Hajia Amina Adam underperformed, polling 41% instead of the projected 50%, exceeding the model’s margin of error.
- Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed outperformed expectations, securing 45%, four percentage points above the highest projection within the margin of error.
- The results for Dr Yakubu Azindow and Mohammed Najib Sani were within the predicted ranges.
Mr Dankwah also alluded to the possible influence of campaign activities on the outcome, stating: “As for what influence what we saw had on the results, I leave it to you people. It took bribes to defeat science and data.”
The results confirmed Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed as the NDC’s candidate for the forthcoming Ayawaso East by-election, which was necessitated by the death of the sitting Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure.
The pollster’s admission has renewed debate about the reliability of pre-election polling, particularly in tightly contested internal party elections, where local dynamics and campaign strategies can significantly influence outcomes.
