The world’s strongest storm this year bears down on Jamaica
Jamaica is bracing for the world’s strongest storm this year – and possibly the strongest on record for the island nation – as US meteorologists warn of “catastrophic and life-threatening” conditions.
Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to make landfall early on Tuesday, has already been blamed for three “storm-related deaths” on the Caribbean island, as well as four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
With wind speeds of up to 175mph (282km/h), Melissa is a category five storm – the maximum strength. And it’s intensifying.
Experts warn the hurricane’s slow pace may mean prolonged torrential rain in some areas, increasing the risk of deadly flooding and landslides.
A storm ‘the likes of which we have never seen’
The Jamaican government has done everything it can to prepare for a storm “the likes of which we have never seen”, the country’s Information Minister, Dana Morris Dixon, told Shaun Ley on BBC’s Newshour.
With up to 40 inches of rain possible in parts of the island nation, Dixon says those are “numbers we’ve never seen in Jamaica in terms of rainfall”.
And on top of that, Dixon added, October is already the country’s rainy month.
“The ground is already very saturated. And then to take that much rain means we’re going to have flooding, extensive flooding and landslides in the mountainous areas.”
She said the last hurricane to directly hit Jamaica was 37 years ago, and urged people to take this one seriously.
Jamaica has 881 active shelters, and all of them are free, she added.
Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding forecast
Hurricane Melissa will bring “catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding” to Jamaica, says the National Hurricane Center., external
The US-based group expects between 15 and 30 inches of rainfall to hit Jamaica, with extensive rain in Cuba and the south-eastern Bahamas, bringing “numerous landslides”.
As the hurricane hits Jamaica, destructive winds of up to 130 mph (209 km/h) are expected to cause power cuts and isolate communities.
Storm surges of up to 13 feet, external above ground level are also likely with smaller surges in south-east Cuba.
It’s a similar story in Haiti, Dominican Republic and south-eastern Bahamas, with the hurricane centre warning of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Mandatory evacuation in effect as Jamaica closes schools, airports
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, has ordered a mandatory evacuation of low lying areas as the island prepares for Hurricane Melissa to make landfall.
Shelter orders are also in place in the country, and all public schools have been moved online.
The two international airports, Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston and Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, have also shuttered, suspending all operations over the weekend.
‘Nobody in Jamaica has lived through anything comparable’published at 05:4305:43
Meteorologist and storm chaser Matthew Cappucci tells the BBC that Melissa, a category five hurricane, will be the strongest to hit Jamaica since records began.
There was one hurricane, Gilbert, in 1981 that killed 49 people in Jamaica, and it was a category three when it made landfall, he says.
Melissa “could be an order of magnitude more significant”, because hurricane strength doesn’t go up linearly – it goes up exponentially.
“Nobody in Jamaica has lived through anything comparable to what they’re going to get,” Cappucci says.
He adds that while category five storms do occur, they tend not to reach land.
“It is extremely rare to get a category five with impact anywhere on Earth.”
Many people have been evacuated from vulnerable areas in Kingston, ordered to do so by the government.
A Jamaican’s house is more than their castle, and until the evacuation order was made, many preferred to ride out the storm at home.
But as another Instagram post stated: “I can’t wait till we get back to precedented times” – with no more record storm surges, no more extensive island-wide flooding, and no hurricane speeds that make a hypercar blush.
In contrast, the slow speed of Melissa’s approach has made for the most anxiety-ridden few days I’ve had in a while.
There are questions of will-it, won’t-it make landfall; where will it turn; how long will I have Internet; what’s going to be left of my business?
Sustained winds have started to lash the Jamaican coast
For days, Jamaicans have waited and prepared for Hurricane Melissa’s arrival as satellite images have shown the vast storm strengthening and slowly bearing down on the island.
Now, the islanders are beginning to feel the full brunt of what is predicted to be the most powerful hurricane to hit Jamaica on record.
Sustained winds with speeds of up to 270kmph (168mph) have started to lash the Jamaican coast.
The fear is that as much as 102 centimetres of rain could be dumped on Jamaica within a matter of hours, leading to flash flooding, rivers bursting their banks and mudslides.
In the final hours ahead of the storm, the Jamaican government imposed a mandatory evacuation order on several areas including the coastal town of Port Royal.
Thousands of residents have taken refuge in government storm shelters but some have expressed reluctance to leave their homes.
Such is the ferocity of this slow-moving storm, more remote communities are in real danger of being completely cut off.
The airport has been closed and international aid agencies like the UN World Food Programme are already co-ordinating with the Jamaican government – which says it has an emergency response budget of £25m ($33m).
Several people have been killed elsewhere in the Caribbean and at least three have already died in Jamaica during the storm’s approach.
While there is expected to widespread damage to infrastructure, the island’s authorities now just hope they have done enough – and that enough people have heeded the official warnings – to avoid any further loss of life.
Why is Melissa such a dangerous and impactful storm?
Melissa is a particularly powerful, large and slow-moving hurricane, and there are several reasons why:
Warmer waters
Hurricanes need warm waters to provide their fuel, and higher heat on the sea surface has been injecting extra energy into the storm system. The waters in the western Caribbean are currently close to 30C, around two to three Celsius above average for the time of year.
Lack of wind shear
The winds in the atmosphere surrounding the hurricane are not changing very much with height, and this lack of wind shear has played an important role in allowing the hurricane’s extensive growth.
When wind shear is greater, it tends to rip storms apart and allow them to weaken, but in this set up, Hurricane Melissa has been able to continue building and strengthening for several days.
Slow-moving
The ‘steering winds’ driving the hurricane forward are relatively weak.
This means that the storm system is moving forward slowly, at less than 4mph (6.4kmph), and so lingering over particular areas for a long time and continuing to produce torrential rainfall and destructive winds that would typically move through quicker with a faster-moving storm.
What’s the latest on the hurricane?
The eye wall is still to the south of Jamaica and much of the island is already under tropical storm conditions.
The storm is very slow moving at only 2mph (3.2km/h) in a north-easterly direction. Now that it has turned northwards, it could speed up a little.
The current sustained wind speeds are 175mph (282km/h) with higher gusts. It is an extremely dangerous category five hurricane. It’s the strongest storm on Earth so far this year in terms of wind speeds and central pressure, which is currently just 901 millibars.
Landfall is expected later today in Jamaica and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this morning.
There will be another 15 to 30 inches of rainfall for Jamaica with a storm surge of up to 13ft near landfall on the south coast with large and destructive waves. On the north-west coast, near Montego Bay, there could be a 2ft to 4ft storm surge. We are expecting landslides and catastrophic flooding.
For Haiti, tropical storm conditions will begin later today too, with 6-12in of rainfall.
The storm will move northwards very slowly bringing further rain and will then make landfall again in south-eastern Cuba, still as a major hurricane.
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week.
Summary
- The world’s most powerful storm this year is drawing closer to Jamaica as it barrels northeast through the Caribbean Sea
- Many Jamaicans have been evacuated – but the slow speed of Melissa’s approach has made for an anxiety-ridden few days, our reporter in Jamaica writes
- The storm has already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, and four deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic
- Forecasters believe it could become the strongest hurricane ever to hit Jamaica, with winds of 175mph (282km/h) and as much as 101cm (40 inches) of rain
- Melissa was upgraded to a category five – the maximum strength – by the US-based National Hurricane Center early on Monday
SOURCE: BBC NEWS
